BEYER FIGURES AND THE QUEEN’S PLATE: A STUDY
What do past Queen’s Plates tell us about the upcoming Plate?
Just like the Kentucky Derby, when handicappers and scribes pore over stats and historical trends, the Plate has its own interesting myths and facts and ‘rules’ about who wins, who doesn’t.
Of course JUSTIFY blew the big ‘jinx’ out of the water at the Derby this year when he became the first horse to win the Run for the Roses that did not race as a 2-year-old in over 100 years.
It was a meaningful trend but with horses racing less in this age, it was bound to be broken.
This corner prefers to look at how fast the Plate was run in past years, what happened in the Plate Trial or Oaks and what horse appears to be ready to peak in the 1 1/4 mile classic.
Thoroughblog has compiled the winning Beyer Speed Figure for every Plate winner since the numbers were put into Daily Racing Form plus a few years before when yours truly was calculating speed figures.
HANDICAPPING: Does the horse ‘Fig’-ure?
Speed ratings, speed figures, sheet numbers and graphs. There are many handicapping tools available for handicappers to use to sort out contenders from pretenders in any given horse race.
Beyer Speed Figures, formulated by Andy Beyer in 1975 and published in Daily Racing Form since 1992, is a number assigned to a horse’s performance based on its time taking into account the speed of the racetrack on any particular day.
Since 1996 the Beyer ‘par’ for the Plate, the average winning figure, is 95. Any 3-year- old entering the race that has already come close to posting such a number is an automatic consideration when placing your bet. Projecting a horse that appears to be peaking up to that plateau is also a handy approach.
It is not often that the winner of the PLATE TRIAL goes on to win the Plate, often because a 3-year-old might peak in the Trial and then ‘pair up’ or regress in the Plate itself. 13 horses have won the Trial and Plate since 1944.
Fillies are ever so dangerous in the Plate too. Take a look at the Thoroughblog study:
Year – QP Winner/Beyer (Pre-Plate Beyer) – Plate Trial winner/Beyer – Sire of Plate Winner
2017 – HOLY HELENA/96 (94 in Oaks) – Guy Caballero/82 – Ghostzapper
2016 – SIR DUDLEY DIGGES/85 – Amis Gizmo/84 – Gio Ponti
2015 – SHAMAN GHOST/87 (86 in Marine) – Danish Dynaformer/87 – Ghostzapper
2014 – LEXIE LOU/91 (Won Oaks with 95) – We Miss Artie/85 – Sligo Bay (Ire)
2013 – MIDNIGHT ARIA/101 – Dynamic Sky/88 – Midnight Lute
2012 – STRAIT OF DOVER/98 – River Rush/93 – English Channel
2011 – INGLORIOUS/99 (94 in Oaks) – Check Your Soul/90 – Hennessy
2010 – BIG RED MIKE/92 – Big Red Mike/91 – Tenpins
2009 – EYE OF THE LEOPARD/92 – Eye of the Leopard/85 – A.P. Indy
2008 – NOT BOURBON/93 – Not Bourbon/90 – Not Impossible
**2007 – MIKE FOX/90 – Jiggs Coz/88 – Giant’s Causeway
2006 – EDENWOLD/94 – Pipers Thunder/81 – Southern Halo
2005 – WILD DESERT/92 – Dance With Ravens/92 (DQ) – Wild Rush
2004 – NIIGON/97 – A Bit O’Gold/97 – Unbridled
*2003 – WANDO/111 – Mobil/95 – Langfuhr
2002 – T J’S LUCKY MOON/86 – Shaws Creek/89 – Tejabo
2001 DANCETHRUTH’N/9 – Win City/96 – Mr. Prospector
2000 SCATTER THE GOLD/92 – Pete’s Sake/8 – Mr. Prospector
1999 WOODCARVER/97 – Catahoula Parish/88 – Woodman
1998 ARCHERS BAY/106 – Brite Adam/98 – Silver Deputy
1997 AWESOME AGAIN/100 – Cryptocloser/97 – Deputy Minister
1996 VICTOR COOLEY/102 – Northface/103 – Cool Victor
1995 REGAL DISCOV’Y/99 – All Firmed Up/96 – Regal Classic
1994 BASQUEIAN/103 – Bruce’s Mill/93 – Bounding Basque
*1993 PETESKI/101 – Circlating/88 – Affirmed
1992 ALYDEED/105 – Alydeed/105 – Shadeed
*1991 DANCE SMARTLY/102 – Bolulight/Megas Vukeofalos/100 – Danzig
*1990 IZVESTIA/113 – Izvestia/n/a – Icecapade
*1989 WITH APPROVAL/99 – With Approval/n/a – Caro (Ire)
1988 REGAL INTENTION/102 – Regal Classic/n/a -Vice Regent
- *Triple Crown Winner
- **First year of synthetic surface era
- Before 1992, Beyer Figures calculated by the author at that time
159TH QUEEN’S PLATE PROBABLES
Post position draw 9:30 am Wednesday, double draw for Saturday and Sunday racing.
TELEKINESIS – Ghostzapper – Intentional Cry, Street Cry (Ire). Owner: Barbara Banke’s Stonestreet Stable. Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: Patrick Husbands. Breeder: Bill Graham. $470,000 weanling. Won Plate Trial. Beyers: 88 in Plate Trial, 90 in Lexington
ROSE’S VISION – Artie Schiller – Essential Rose, Bernardini. Owner/Breeder: Chiefswood Stable. Trainer: Stuart Simon. Jockey: Javier Castellano. 2nd Plate Trial. Beyers: 85 Plate Trial , 71 Marine
AHEADBYACENTURY – Midnight Lute – Sinful, Touch Gold. Owner: Jack of Hearts Racing and John Ross. Trainer: John Ross. Jockey: Luis Contreras. Breeder: Hill ‘N’ Dale Farms. 3rd Plate Trial. Beyers: 77, 74, 66
BOYHOOD DREAM – Dialed In – Mayfield Road, Yonaguska. Owners: Ken and Sarah Ramsey. Trainer: Mike Maker. Breeder: Bill Graham. 4th Plate Trial. Beyers: 75, 72 63
DIXIE MOON – filly by Curlin – Dixie Chicken. Owner/Breeder: Sean and Dorothy Fitzhenry. Trainer: Catherine Day Phillips. Jockey: Eurico da Silva. Won Woodbine Oaks. Beyers: 88, 85
WONDER GADOT – Medaglia D’Oro – Loving Vindication, Vindication. Owner: Gary Barber. Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: John Velazquez. Breeder: Anderson Farms. 2nd Woodbine Oaks. Beyers: 88, 96, 82
STRIKE ME DOWN – Tapit – Strike Softly, Smart Strike. Owner/Breeder: Sam-Son Farms. Trainer: Graham Motion. Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Stakes placed last start, winner. Beyers: 83, 81, 74
SAY THE WORD – More Than Ready – Danceforthecause, Giant’s Causeway. Owner/Breeder: Sam-Son Farms. Trainer: Graham Motion. Jockey: Rafael Hernandez. Winner. Beyers: 83, 79, 77
NEEPAWA – Scat Daddy – Niigon’s Touch, Niigon, Owner/Breeder: Chiefswood Stable. Trainer: Mark Casse. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Stakes place winner. Beyers: 77, 85, 84
COOLER MIKE – Giant Gizmo – Executive Affair, Bold Executive. Owner/Breeder: Nick and Mike Nosowenko. Trainer: Nick Nosowenko. Jockey: Jesse Campbell.Stakes placed winner. Beyers: 80, 86
MARRIAGE COUNSELOR – Overanalyze – Exe, Exchange Rate. Owner/Breeder: Ken and Sarah Ramsey. Trainer: Mike Maker. Winner. Beyers: 62, 53, 59
SILENT POET – Silent Name-Cara Bella, Ghostzapper. Owner/Breeder: Stronach Stables. Trainer: Nick Gonzalez. Gary Boulanger. Winner. Beyers: 82, 82, 68
ALTERNATIVE ROUTE– Tiznow – La Suena, Storm Cat. Owner: Spendthrift Farm. Trainer: Al Stall. Jockey: Mitchell Murrill. Breeder: Bill Graham. Rushaway Stakes. Beyers: 72, 71, 70
INGE – Victor’s Cry – Alexabella, Congaree. Owner: Bruno Schickedanz. Trainer: Norm McKnight. Breeder: True North Stable. Stakes placed – 5th Marine. Beyers: 74, 74, 67
REAL DUDE – Ghostzapper – Ginger Brew, Milwaukee Brew. Owner/Breeder: Stronach Stables. Trainer: Sid Attard. Jockey: David Moran Maiden. Beyers: 64, 52
PAWNBROKER – Gio Ponti – Sweetdetermination, Alphabet Soup. Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey. Trainer: Mike Maker. Breeders: Tom Mountain and Lionel Perriera. $40K Keeneland Yearling. Maiden after one race. Beyer: 53
BE PART OF THE THRILL OF HORSE OWNERSHIP!
There is more information and help out there than ever before when it comes to learning about how to own a racehorse and what is involved.
Partnerships and syndicates are popular these days but you can also get into the business on your own with the help and guidance of groups such as the HBPA (Ontario), CTHS (Ontario) and Woodbine, which has a site for racing clubs.
In Quarter Horse Racing, the very popular First Line Syndicate has 20 shares of a horse at $2,500. The new owners are on their 2nd horse, Eye Am the Eagle, who has already won a maiden allowance race at Ajax Downs.
Check out this interview near the end of the clip with the new owners who won with their horse on June 17:
HBPA has a site dedicated to New ownership where you can find out about syndicates, trainers and how to buy a horse:
On Friday there is an OWNERSHIP SEMINAR courtesy of Woodbine by the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association. That information packed event also included a ticket to the Queen’s Plate the next day.
ONLINE SURVEY: Evaluation of the CPMA
Tell the CPMA how you think they are doing in deterring the use of prohibited substances in horse racing in Canada!
Monitoring and deterring the use of prohibited substances that could illegally boost the performance of horses during races is a critical component of maintaining the integrity and fairness of horse racing in Canada. The Canadian Pari-Mutuel Agency (CPMA), housed within Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, has an important role to play in this area. But how well is the CPMA doing? This is a key question that has led the Agency to undertake a review of all of its activities. Understanding what is currently working well and where improvements can be made is fundamental in ensuring that the work of the CPMA remains relevant and effective.
Plenty of documented information will be consulted during the review process, but it is critical to gather the actual views of those on the front line of horse racing. To engage these individuals, the CPMA is working with a research firm, PRA Inc., to administer a short on-line survey. The hope is that horse owners, trainers, grooms, and other individuals involved in horse racing will take just a few minutes to add their perspective to the review. Understanding the realities of horse racing requires more than data, statistics and reports. It takes the knowledge that comes from the experiences of those for whom horse racing is a commitment and a passion. If you are one of these individuals, please take less than five minutes to provide your insights through the following Web link.